Npt, and the closely related issues of nuclear latency and nuclear hedging. Instead, people fear nuclear armageddon, and the power of the atom is becoming synonymous with death and destruction. Benefits and burdens of nuclear latency international. Turkish nuclear diplomacy and nonproliferation policies. The causes of nuclear weapons proliferation annual. Workshop on nuclear latency, nonproliferation, and. One of the most serious threats facing the united states and other countries is the possibility that a nuclear weapon, nuclear weaponusable materials, or certain highrisk radiological sources could be stolen from poorly secured stockpiles or facilities in various locations around the world. Not least among these challenges is the possibility that the pursuit of nuclear weapons or a nuclear option by. The views in this paper are the authors and not necessarily those of nti. Indeed, nuclear fuel has always been available on the international market for small and medium size nuclear program. The record matthew bunn1 in considering how to reduce the contribution of the civilian nuclear energy system to the proliferation of nuclear weapons in the future, it is important to examine what aspects of civilian nuclear energy have contributed to nuclear weapons programs in the past.
To address these other threats, the department of energys national nuclear security administration. There are an estimated 23,000 nuclear weapons in the world today, 22,000 of them belonging to the united states and russia. Nuclear proliferation, the spread of nuclear weapons, nuclear weapons technology, or fissile material to countries that do not already possess them. Nuclear proliferation and the npt by ilkka pastinen upon its conclusion in 1968, the treaty on the nonproliteration of nuclear weapons npt was acclaimed as the most important international agreement in the field of disarmament since the nuclear age began and a major success for the cause of peace. Explaining the proliferation of latent nuclear capabilities matthew. Nuclear power and the risk of nuclear proliferation. Potter and gaukhar mukhatzhanova stanford uni versity press, 2010. International atomic energy agency iaea, nuclear latency. Yet many others have the technical capacity to proliferate if they so desired. The spread of nuclear weapons is a hotly debated topic, with two dominating schools of thought. In circumstances in which states face opposition to nuclear proliferation from a key ally, nuclear latency can be an attractive option. Also, as a part of describing the coldwar non proliferation regime, the.
The opening chapter of this research paper is mostly theoretical. Sagan, nuclear latency and nuclear proliferation, in forecasting proliferation in the 21 st century. Despite widespread discussion of these policy issues, however, a set of mirrorimage analytic failures has limited our ability to make clear predictions about nuclear latency and proliferation. Nuclear latency can be viewed as the possession of most or all of the technologies, facilities, materials, expertise including tacit knowledge, resources, and other capabilities necessary for the development of nuclear weapons, stopping short of full operational weaponization. Vertical proliferation can be defined as the advancement or modernization of a nationstates nuclear arsenal, whereas horizontal proliferation is the direct or indirect transfer of technologies from one nationstate to another, which ultimately leads to the more advanced development and proliferation of nuclear weapons.
Sagan, nuclear latency and nuclear proliferation, 84. Today, nine states have nuclear weapons and many more can easily acquire those, although only five states are officially recognized as possessing nuclear weapons by the 1968 nuclear nonproliferation treaty npt. Kazakhstan inherited 1,400 nuclear weapons from the soviet union, and transferred them all to russia by 1995. In may 1992, belarus acceded to the nuclear non proliferation treaty. Monitoring nuclear weapons and nuclearexplosive materials. States that could assemble an arsenal relatively quickly in the event of a crisis, like japan, possess nuclear latency. Sensitive nuclear assistance and nuclear proliferation dongjoon jo and erik gartzke. It also examines the historical record during the cold war as well as the proliferation of nuclear weapons to regional powers and the resulting deterrence consequences. Eight sovereign states have publicly announced successful detonation of nuclear weapons. One school espouses the belief that horizontal nuclear proliferation is inevitable and that increased proliferation engenders nuclear deterrence.
Today, nine states have nuclear weapons and many more can easily acquire those, although only five states are officially recognized as possessing nuclear weapons by the 1968 nuclear non proliferation treaty npt. Kazakhstan has since acceded to the nuclear non proliferation treaty. Both the international atomic energy agency iaea and the nuclear nonproliferation treaty npt embody an inherent contradiction. Proliferation has been opposed by many nations with and without nuclear weapons, as. Indigenous production of it is not economical unless there is an intent for industrial scale enrichment. Scrap nuclear plans, international herald tribune, august 8, 1995. The aim of this article is to summarize, synthetize, update, and contextualize turkeys non proliferation policies and link it to the broader discussion on nuclear latency.
Nuclear proliferation is the spread of nuclear weapons, fissionable material, and weaponsapplicable nuclear technology and information to nations not recognized as nuclear weapon states by the treaty on the nonproliferation of nuclear weapons, commonly known as the nonproliferation treaty or npt. Determinants of nuclear weapons proliferation february 26. The other school of thought argues that nuclear weapons are an everpresent risk, and that we should strive. By volha charnysh, napf intern from nuclear proliferation. This questionwhich i will call the nuclear latency questionis both exceedingly. See sagan, nuclear latency and nuclear proliferation, 85. A novel nuclear weapons proliferation assessment method has been developed to determine a states nuclear weapons latency, the expected time to be taken by a nonnuclear weapons state to develop a conventionally deliverable nuclear weapon given the states position on a path toward or away from a nuclear weapon and accounting for the states motivations and intentions. It was argued that nuclear latency was a special case of strategic latency. All along, nuclear proliferation has been a field in which analytical judgement calls are. This workshop report explores the relationship between nuclear latency and contemporary nonproliferation efforts, including. Does the nuclear non proliferation treaty need an overhaul. Because such latent capability is not proscribed by the nuclear nonproliferation treaty, this is sometimes called the japan option as a workaround to the treaty, as japan is a clear case of a country with complete technical prowess to develop a.
Nuclear power and the risk of nuclear proliferation that was the view expressed by henry sokolski, executive director of the washington, d. I highlight the problems that result from uncertainty about the accuracy and completeness of the data. It highlights a range of existing good policies and practices aimed at furthering nuclear disarmament, curbing nuclear proliferation, or safeguarding nuclear security, and explores what parliamentarians can further do to fashion the. Conflict management and peace science almost nuclear. The new political science literature on nuclear proliferation and nonproliferation should help us understand the crucial questions about states capabilities and motives forbuilding thebomb, but it has thus far been of limited utility. If detonated, these weapons would cause the equivalent of about 150,00 hiroshima bombs. It introduces the basics of nuclear weapons, nuclear strategy, and deterrence theory. Nuclear proliferation is the spread of nuclear weapons, fissionable material, and weaponsapplicable nuclear technology and information to nations not recognized as nuclear weapon states by the treaty on the non proliferation of nuclear weapons, commonly known as the non proliferation treaty or npt. This book strives to take stock of current achievements and existing challenges in nuclear verification, identify the available information and gaps that can act as drivers for exploring new approaches to verification strategies and technologies.
When a country does not currently have nuclear weapons but has a peaceful nuclear program that could be used to produce nuclear weapons, it is said to be in a state of nuclear latency. This is the introduction from peaceful nuclear programs and the problem of nuclear latency, by john carlson. The 9 countries with nuclear arms, and allies theyve. Japan, south korea, and egypt executive summary nuclear activity in north korea and iran presents numerous challenges to the global nonproliferation regime. Finally, the new quantitative proliferation literature in political science frequently conflates two analytically different phenomena under the same labels of nuclear weapons capability or nuclear latency. Five are considered to be nuclearweapon states nws under the terms of the treaty on the nonproliferation of nuclear weapons npt. Nuclear proliferation pdf carnegie council for ethics in. The treaty is regarded as the cornerstone of the global nuclear nonproliferation regime and an essential foundation for the pursuit of nuclear disarmament. It discusses coding procedures, describes global trends, and compares the dataset with earlier efforts to measure nuclear latency.
A latent variable approach to measuring nuclear capability bradley c. As argued above, the united states has been the foremost opponent of nuclear proliferation and, consequently, would have responded to the spread of sensitive nuclear technology by deploying either positive or negative inducements, or a combination thereof, to persuade latent states from proceeding further down the nuclear path. Nuclear latency and the future strategic environment by michael malyshev the nuclear non proliferation treaty and resulting nonproliferation regime may have allayed mid20th century concerns about the rate of spread of nuclear weapons, but the notion of nuclear latency has by no means become obsolete. Because such latent capability is not proscribed by the nuclear non proliferation treaty, this is sometimes called the japan option as a workaround to the treaty, as japan is a clear case of a country with complete technical prowess to develop a. The nuclear nonproliferation treaty and the resulting multifaceted nonproliferation regime may have allayed that concern, but the latent threat of. Nuclear latency and the future strategic environment by michael malyshev the nuclear nonproliferation treaty and resulting nonproliferation regime may have allayed mid20th century concerns about the rate of spread of nuclear weapons, but the notion of nuclear latency has by no means become obsolete.
The agreement was approved by the board of governors on 18 march 2003. Also, as a part of describing the coldwar nonproliferation regime, the. Workshop on nuclear latency, nonproliferation, and disarmament. Nuclear latency can be viewed as the possession of many or all of the technologies, facilities, materials, expertise including tacit knowledge, resources and other capabilities necessary for the development of nuclear weapons, without full operational weaponization. Treaty on the nonproliferation of nuclear weapons npt. From a nonproliferation point of view these can be seen as steps in the right direction. The term is also used to refer to the possible acquisition of nuclear weapons by terrorist organizations or other armed groups. The question is no longer how to achieve complete rollback of irans nuclear programme. Many people also perceive a positive connection between nuclear energy and international security, especially when iranian or north korean nuclear intentions have been. Among the participants, there was widespread recognition that nuclear latency is an important but understudied issue with significant implications for nonproliferation, arms control and disarmament. Supporting nuclear nonproliferation and disarmament. Vertical proliferation vs horizontal proliferation. International conflict, nuclear latency, nuclear proliferation introduction only 10 countries have built nuclear weapons to date.
Nuclear latency matthew fuhrmann and benjamin tkach. The country maintains a policy that it will not use, or threaten to use its arsenal against any nonnuclearweaponcarrying state according to the uns 1970 treaty on the nonproliferation of. The aim of this article is to summarize, synthetize, update, and contextualize turkeys nonproliferation policies and link it to the broader discussion on nuclear latency. In addition, since 1996 the us has been conducting the foreign research reactor frr spent nuclear fuel snf acceptance program to return spent fuel of us origin from many countries around the world.
Pdf the causes of nuclear weapons proliferation researchgate. However, because nuclear latency is inherently unobservable, a number of issues plague existing existing measures. Nuclear latency and nuclear proliferation by scott sagan download pdf. For a critical assessment of the notion, see scott d. Compellence with nuclear latency, security studies, 26. In the literature, the technical capability to develop. Appendix a physics and technology of nuclear explosive materials. Smith william spaniely march 24, 2016 abstract latent nuclear capability is a concept of central importance to proliferation scholars. The geopolitics of nuclear weapons geopolitical futures. Civilian nuclear energy and nuclear weapons programs. This questionwhich i will call the nuclear latency. Because such latent capability is not proscribed by the nuclear non proliferation treaty, this is sometimes called the japan option as a workaround to the treaty, as japan is considered a paranuclear state, being a clear case of a country with complete technical prowess to develop a nuclear weapon quickly, or as it is sometimes called. We show that nuclear latency is far more common than nuclear proliferation. Fsi cisac nuclear latency and nuclear proliferation.
The first section briefly presents what we know about which states developed nuclear weapons and which states started but abandoned weapons development programs. In order of acquisition of nuclear weapons these are the united states, russia the successor state to the soviet union, the united kingdom, france, and china. They concede that the, nuclear non proliferation treaty npt which went into effect in 1970, has helped limit. This course provides an introduction to the politics and theories surrounding the proliferation of nuclear weapons. To build a nuclear weapon, a country must have technical knowledge and capabilities, access to materials, and a welldeveloped industrial sector.
Nuclear proliferation has long been recognized as a severe threat to the world. Political scientists working on these subjects have often failed to examine basic technical factors regarding the nuclear fuel cycle that strongly. The nuclear proliferation danger is an issue derived from the intentions of governments instead of the existence of nuclear power plants or even of nuclear fuelcycle facilities. Civil nuclear power and nuclear weapons proliferation. A comprehensive view of the history of nuclear proliferation. Second, there is a great deal of weapons potential latent in. Nuclear proliferation remains one of the most pressing and important issues in international politics and security. The paper also looks at the safeguards challenges presented by national nuclear fuel cycle developments, and. Nuclear latency and the future strategic environment.
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